What’s shaping the weather?
According to the Farmer’s Almanac, 2018, solar (sun) activity is on the decline with expected temperatures to be colder than last winter, but still above normal. Snowfall will be above normal in much of New England, from New Mexico eastward to the Tennessee Valley, in the central Plans and the Intermountain region, and in the California mountains, with below normal snowfall in other areas.
A weak El Nino is expected this winter, with cold air masses able to slip into the Intermountain region but will have difficulty making any prolonged inroads into the northern Plains, Great Lakes, or northeastern states. Other important factors in the coming weather pattern include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in a continued warm phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a neutral phase, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the early stages of its warm cycle. Oscillations are linked ocean-atmospher patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years.
WINTER PREDICTION – temperatures will be much colder than last winter, but still above normal, from Maine southward to most of Florida and westward through the Great Lakes, Midwest, Heartland, and Northern Plains. Below normal temperatures will be the rule from the Gulf States westward to California and from the Intermountain region westward to the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation will be above normal in much of the country, with above-normal snowfall in northern and central states.
SPRING PREDICTION – warmer than normal in Florida, Lower Lakes, Intermountain, Pacific Northwest, and interior portions of the Pacific Southwest. Near or cooler than normal elsewhere. Spring precipitation will be below normal from North Carolina southward to Florida and i the Lower Lakes, Intermountain, Pacific Coast states. It will be above normal in most other areas.
SUMMER PREDICTION – temperatures will be below normal in much of California, the southern Intermountain region, and Texas-Oklahoma, but above normal elsewhere. Rainfall will be above normal from the mid-Atlantic southward to Florida, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and the Deep South, from Texas-Oklahoma westward into southeastern Arizona, and in the Pacific Northwest it will be below normal elsewhere. The best chance for a major HURRICANE strike are in late August and early September along the western and central Gulf regions, with a tropical storm threat in early to mid-September from Florida to North Carolina.
AUTUMN PREDICTION – temperatures will be cooler than normal in much of the Northeast, from the High Plains westward to the Pacific, and in the Desert Southwest and warmer than normal in most other areas. Precipitation will be above normal, particularly in the Pacific region.
REPRINT, OLD FARMER’S ALMANAC 2018